Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are conducted: hopeful statements are delivered from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is devoted on managing particular approaches. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from Russian territory, a ability afforded by timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been deployed to engage hostile cruise missiles streaked across the sky – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: multiple launches targeted at a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably supplied through Western nations. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly gives way to grim resignation: possibly the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a heavy machine gun fired at a drone somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its target.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: several casualties, damage and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a reliance that regional partners are demonstrably unable to fill in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from Washington provoked deep reactions, debate and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new proposal from Washington unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, undoubtedly, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington operates on a assumption understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration assumes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its favour in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but averting a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their mission will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to kill the 28 points of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new plans based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect certain reluctance to modify developments, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
