Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the political, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of serious debate, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in academia but hardly any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the status quo. They composes two essays that seek impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the notion that there might be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has got something to gain from the opposing positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
